Have trouble making decisions? This book may help

When it comes to making decisions — both big ("Should I refinance?") and small ("Where to go for dinner?") — I often have trouble (...I can hear those who know me chuckling at that understatement). But I'm not alone in this type of behavior, according to a new book.

Author Dylan Evans ("Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty," Free Press, $26, April 2012, 288 pp.) has penned a carefully researched book that provides all the statistical evidence one might need to improve her risk intelligence.

"This book is about why so many of us are so bad at estimating probabilities and how we can become better at it," writes Evans.

Evans devised a test consisting of 50 statements, the responses to which produce an overall score which comprises your Risk Quotient. You can take a basic and quick RQ test for free Evans' website, www.projectionpoint.com. I got a "low" score of 49.28 out of 100 on this test, which puts me in good company: The vast majority of us have quite low risk intelligence, according to Evans.

So how can we change that?

In his book, Evans offers simple techniques we can use to boost our RQ. These include: 

• Train yourself not to follow your natural inclination to estimate risks either by a vague "gut feeling" or verbally, such as describing them to yourself as "highly probable." Instead, always assign a specific percentage for the probability of an event. 

• Make yourself consider a larger number of possibilities of outcomes for events that you are naturally inclined toward. We generally consider two or three, but should consider closer to five or six.

• Gain a better understanding of a simple set of truths about probability.

•  Assess your "risk appetite" — your natural degree of willingess to take risks.

• To view the book trailer, visit www.youtube.com/evansd66

About the book (from the author's website:

There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn't correlate with IQ, and most psychologists failed to spot it because it is found in such a disparate, rag-tag group of people — American weather-forecasters, professional gamblers, and hedge-fund managers, for example. 

This book shows just how important risk intelligence is. Many people in positions which require high risk intelligence — doctors, financial regulators and bankers, for instance — seem unable to navigate what Evans calls the "darkened room," the domain of doubt and uncertainty. 

Risk Intelligence is a traveler's guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation. Evans shows us how risk intelligence is vital to making good decisions, from dealing with climate change to combating terrorism. He argues that we can all learn a lot from expert gamblers, not just about money, but about how to make decisions in all aspects of our lives.

Want to win it?

I think this book will appeal to those who like STATISTICS. It's chock full of 'em. If you would like to "win" my new hardcover review copy of Dylan Evans's new novel "Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty," courtesy of Free Press, an imprint of Simon & Schuster, simply comment on this post with your email address. If you're selected as winner (at random), I'll contact you to find out where to mail the book. If no one comments or otherwise claims the book it will be donated to the Pottstown Regional Public Library. 

About the author:

DYLAN EVANS

Dylan Evans is the founder of Projection Point, the global leader in risk intelligence solutions. He has written several science books, including "Emotion: The Science of Sentiment" (Oxford University Press, 2001) and "Placebo: The Belief Effect" (HarperCollins, 2003), and in 2001 he was voted one of the 20 best young writers in Britain by the Independent on Sunday. He received a PhD in philosophy from the London School of Economics in 2000, and has held academic appointments at King's College London, the University of Bath, the University of the West of England, and University College Cork. He recently spent a semester as Visiting Professor of Psychology at the American University of Beirut.

Giveaway: Courtroom thriller 'Under Oath'

Summer's just about here and it's time to start stockpiling some good beach reads. Let me help you out and give you one for free.

If you would like to "win" my new hardcover review copy of Margaret McLean's new novel "Under Oath," (Forge, April 2012, 380 pp., $25.99), courtesy of Forge books, simply comment on this post with your email address. If you're selected as winner (at random), I'll contact you to find out where to mail the book. If no one comments or otherwise claims the book it will be donated to the Pottstown Regional Public Library.   

Those of you who like courtroom dramas (on TV or in print) will likely enjoy "Under Oath," described by the publisher as "an exciting courtroom mystery that revolves around a murder, conspiracy, and the infamous 'code of silence' in Charlestown.'"

About the book (from the publisher):

A Boston firefighter is shot and killed in the line of duty while rescuing Amina Diallo and her young son from their burning store. Amina, a Senegalese Muslim immigrant, is arrested for arson and murder, and will likely be convicted.

Attorneys Sarah Lynch and Buddy Clancy face a mountain of racial and religious prejudice in this impossible courtroom battle.

As they gain momentum, the lawyers slam headfirst into a firestorm of political corruption. A sinister force is working against them, attacking witnesses and destroying evidence.

A deadly pursuit of the truth becomes Amina's only chance in Margaret McLean's explosive legal thriller, Under Fire.  

MARGARET McLEAN

Check out the book's website here.

About the author:

A native of Rome, N.Y., Margaret McClean is a former prosecutor, trial attorney, and current professor of law at Boston College. Her first novel, "Under Fire," was released in 2011. She was named one of “The Next Faces of Boston Crime Fiction” by The Boston Globe and is currently serving as president of the Mystery Writers of America, New England Chapter. McLean has also co-written a dramatic courtroom play based on "Under Oath" which is in development at the Actor's Studio in New York City. She resides in Norwell, Mass., with her three children.

Murder mystery giveaway: 'Eyes of Justice'

In anticipation of the "extra" idle hours readers will have over the long holiday weekend, I'm giving away a fast-paced thriller.

Fox News Legal Analyst Lis Wiehl continues her "Triple Threat Club" book series with "Eyes of Justice" (Thomas Nelson, April 2012, 308 pp., $26.99), written with April Henry.

"Eyes of Justice" is the fourth book in the series that follows news reporter Cassidy Shaw, FBI Agent Nicole Hedges and federal prosecutor Allison.

Want to win it?
If you would like to "win" my new hardcover review copy of the book, courtesy of Thomas Nelson books, simply comment on this post with your email address. If you're selected as winner (at random), I'll contact you to find out where to mail the book. If no one comments or otherwise claims the book it will be donated to the Pottstown Regional Public Library. 

Book description from the publisher:

The Triple Threat Club has solved intense mysteries before… but this time it’s personal.

Cassidy, Allison, and Nicole fight for justice every day — Cassidy as a crime reporter, Nicole with the FBI, and Allison as a federal prosecutor. Together they’re a Triple Threat to be reckoned with.

But never have they faced a case so full of blind alleys — or so painfully close to home.

When a devastating turn of events upsets the balance of the Triple Threat team, they discover an ally in a quirky Private Investigator named Olivia. The women vow not to stop until the case is solved and justice is served.

Yet just when it appears the police have the killer in custody, he somehow strikes again. Not knowing who to trust, the Triple Threat women go undercover for an intricate and deadly cat-and-mouse game where nothing can be taken at face value… and nothing will ever be the same.

Success — or survival — isn’t assured in this riveting Triple Threat mystery that will leave readers both shocked and satisfied.

For more information about Wiehl's books, visit her website.

About the authors:

LIS WIEHL

Lis Wiehl is one of the nation’s most prominent trial lawyers and commentators. She is a legal analyst and reporter on the Fox News Channel and Bill O’Reilly’s sparring partner in the weekly “Is It Legal?” segment on The O’Reilly Factor. Prior to that she was O’Reilly’s co-host on the nationally syndicated show The Radio Factor. She is also a professor at New York Law School. Her column “Lis on Law” appears weekly on FoxNews.com.

Prior to joining Fox News Channel in New York City, Wiehl served as a legal analyst and reporter for NBC News and NPR’s "All Things Considered." Before that, she served as a federal prosecutor in the United States Attorney’s office.

Wiehl earned her juris doctor from Harvard Law School and her master of arts in Literature from the University of Queensland.

Wiehl is also the author of "The 51% Minority," which won the 2008 award for Books for a Better Life in the motivational category, and Winning Every Time.

She lives with her husband and two children in New York.

April Henry (in her own works, from her website): I grew up in a small Oregon town, and I still remember my mom teaching me with alphabet flash cards. White with a picture of an object on one side and a letter on the other, those cards glowed with magic.

When I was 12, I sent Roald Dahl, the author of "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory," a short story about a frog named Herman who loved peanut butter. The day he received it, Dahl had lunch with the editor of an international children's magazine and read her the story. She contacted me and asked to publish it. Click here to read more about it.

APRIL HENRY

But as I got older, even though I read all the time, I didn't even dream of being a writer. It would have been like thinking I could fly by flapping my arms really, really hard. Then I got a hospital job with lots of down time and started thinking maybe I could try to write a book about the life and death that surrounded me every day.

That first book I wrote attracted no interest from agents. My second book got me an agent (and we're still together many years and many books later) and nice rejection letters from editors. My third book didn't even get nice rejection letters from editors. My fourth book sold in two days. It was a seven-year overnight success.

Since then, I've written more than a dozen mysteries and thrillers for teens and adults. The first in the Triple Threat Club series, co-written with Lis Wiehl, was on the New York Times bestseller list for four weeks. It was followed by "Hand of Fate" and "Heart of Ice.'

My first young adult novel, "Shock Point," was an ALA Quick Pick, a Top 10 Books for Teens nominee, a New York Library's Books for the Teen Age book, named to the Texas Tayshas list, and a finalist for Philadelphia's Young Readers Choice Award. It was followed by two more teen thrillers: "Torched" and "Girl, Stolen." "Girl, Stolen" was an ALA Quick Pick and an ALA Best Books for Young Adults and is a finalist for many state awards.

Henry resides in Portland, Ore., with her husband and daughter.

2012 Independent Book Publisher Award winners announced

Gold medal winner for popular fiction

The following is from a press release from Jim Barnes, awards director, Independent Book Awards:

The winners of the 16th Annual Independent Publisher Book Awards have been announced and will be celebrated on June 4 during the annual BookExpo America publishing convention in New York. Conducted each year to honor the year's best independently published books, the "IPPY" awards recognize excellence in a broad range of subjects and reward authors and publishers who "take chances and break new ground."

This year's IPPY competition attracted 5,200 entries, and the 372 medalists represent 44 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia, seven Canadian provinces, and 10 countries overseas.

Launched in 1996 as the first unaffiliated awards program open exclusively to independent, university, and self-published titles, the IPPY Awards contest rewards winners in 74 national, 22 regional, and five e-book categories with gold, silver and bronze medallions and foil seals for their book covers.

See complete results for the 2012 Independent Publisher Book Awards

Outstanding Books are also featured on their own page.

"Independent publishers are growing in number, and the quality of their work is increasing," said Barnes. "One element driving the high rate of excellence is participation from university presses. This year, 29 medalists came from university presses and 9 came from museums. Their elevated level of writing, editing, design and production raises the bar and inspires us all."

University presses are known for tackling controversial topics and complex social issues. For example, Arab Detroit 9/11 (Wayne State University Press) explores how the lives of Arab Americans have changed in the "terror decade," Sovereign Erotics (The University of Arizona Press) is an anthology of voices from the Native American GLBT community, and In This Timeless Time (University of North Carolina Press) tells the stories of Texas prison inmates on Death Row.

Popular topics like country music, wine, and 60's counter-culture are covered by these fiction winners: Murder on Music Row (John F. Blair, Publisher) by Stuart Dill, Vertical (sequel to Sideways, from Loose Gravel Press), by Rex Pickett, and We Were Stardust (Bucket List Books), by Kathrin King Segal. IPPY Awards also went to six mouth-watering cookbooks, one of which is Off the Menu: Staff Meals from America's Top Restaurants (Welcome Books) and five intimate biographies, one being House of Cash: The Legacies of My Father, Johnny Cash (Insight Editions), by John Carter Cash.

The IPPY Awards are presented by IndependentPublisher.com, "THE Voice of Independent Publishing" operated by publishing services firm Jenkins Group of Traverse City, Mich.

Review and book giveaway: Lesley Kagen's 'Good Graces'

Review: "Good Graces" by Lesley Kagen (September 2011, Dutton, $25.95. 340 pp)

I don't think I did myself any disservice by reading Lesley Kagen's"Good Graces," the followup novel to "Whistling in the Dark," without having read the first book. That said, reading the sequel piqued my interest in learning what happened to the narrator in that first novel, set a year prior to "Good Graces." But the book can stand alone.

"'Whistling in the Dark' concluded with the girls (Sally and Troo O'Malley) having survived a summer spent dealing with their father's sudden death, their mother's remarriage and hospitalization, and their near escape from a child predator. 'Good Graces' deals with the aftermath of those traumas, and presents a slew of new ones," the author writes in press materials.

"Good Graces," told from the earnest viewpoint of 11-year-old Sally O'Malley, puts the reader smack dab in the middle of the heat-soaked summer of 1960 in Milwaukee. It's drawn out, sleepy and slow, with moments of glittering summertime fun interspersed with moments of dogged boredom, as told from a child's perspective.

Kagen knows from where she speaks - she was born in Milwaukee and spent her early years in a working class neighborhood, "much like the one where 'Whistling in the Dark' and 'Good Graces' are set," she writes on the book's website. She describes "Good Graces" as "a literary novel with a dash of mystery."

Sally and her stubborn, colorful sister Margaret, better known as Troo, age 10, are inseparable – not just because they like hanging out together, but because Sally made a promise to her father on his deathbed that she would watch over Troo.

Sally, for all her gifts (including being intuitive, smart, compassionate and unfailingly kind to older neighbors, a friend with Down Syndrome, and a couple who are grieving the loss of their daughter) is beleaguered by anxiety. She has trouble quieting her mind in the daytime and sleeping at night because of flashbacks of what happened to her the previous summer. (In "Whistling in the Dark," she was attacked by a male camp counselor/serial killer).

In Sally's favor is the fact that her mother's boyfriend – who also happens to be her biological father – is one of the local detectives and treats Sally with respect, loving kindness and kid gloves. Her mother seems to be more concerned with getting her second marriage annulled so she can start on her third than on what's going on in her daughters' lives.

Sally is still mourning the sudden death of her father from injuries sustained in a car accident, her mother's recent hospitalization (for reasons that aren't made clear) and, of course, her ordeal with child molester/murderer Bobby Brophy the summer before.

Sally's summer is filled with reading Nancy Drew books to an ailing neighbor, writing her "charitable" story for her return to Catholic school in the fall, trying to spend time with her hemophiliac boyfriend Henry, and trailing Troo all over the neighborhood.


But things are not exactly so picture perfect as they seem in this close neighborhood. There are a string of "cat" burglaries, a juvenile delinquent named "Greasy Al" is on the loose, and a kid who goes missing.


Sally and Troo find themselves at the heart of the action in a climax and denouement I can only describe as too quickly past and too neatly summed up. (I won't give away the only somewhat fast-moving part of the book).

"Good Graces" is worth a read. On my own personal star scale I give it 3 out of 5. Sally's voice is unique and endearing. The author goes a long way to create this urban sticky hot Wisconsin atmosphere in a town that smells like chocolate chip cookies all the time (thanks to the local cookie factory). The slow pacing overall but hurried rush of a climax for me was a drawback.

I've somehow read a lot of books told from a child's viewpoint in the past few months (This book, "Room" by Emma Donaghue, and "The Girl Who Would Speak For the Dead," by Paul Elwork, among them. All three were narrated by sort of darkly humorous kids). It's a clever device, but I think I'm ready for some more adult books now. (NO, not those kind of adult books!).

Visit the Kagen's website to read the prologue and hear an audio excerpt, as well as learn more about the book.

Want to win it?
If you would like to "win" my just slightly used (read by me) new hardcover review copy of the book, simply comment on this post with your email address. If you're selected as winner (at random, of course), I'll contact you to find out where to mail the book. If no one comments or otherwise claims the book it will be donated to the Pottstown Regional Public Library. 

About the author:

AUTHOR LESLEY KAGEN

Lesley Kagen is also the author of "Whistling in the Dark," "Land of a Hundred Wonders," and "Tomorrow River." She is also an actress, voice-over talent, and restaurateur. She lives near Milwaukee, Wisc.

"Having a crappy childhood is just about the best thing that can happen to a writer. I use the traumas I experienced as a kid as fuel for my writing. I could create a bonfire," the author writes.

"Telling a story through the eyes of a young narrator isn't too different from telling it in an adult voice. Sure, the language of children is less developed, their perceptions can be skewed, but we share something important. An emotional core. The kid in me whats to connect with the kid in my readers so we can get down to the nitty-gritty of life – our emotions – without the armor of adulthood getting in the way."